NDA Losing, UPA retarding, Is 3rd front emerging ?

Based on the alliance formations, NDA is losing  and UPA is retarding because of TC , NCP and SP. Is 3rd front emerging ? ADMK, TD, Shivsena, BSP, TC and NCP have not confirmed its alliance positions with national parties. 

The Key states for 2009 elections are : 

• Uttar Pradesh - BSP will play a key role
  
• West Bengal -TC could play a key role
  
• Maharashta - Shivsena and NCP could play a key role
  
• Andhra Pradesh - TD could play a key role
  
• Tamilnadu - ADMK will play a key role

I am confident that BSP and ADMK will win in their own bastions and for other states, my confidence level is mere 30-40%.